Judo Bank’s Share Slump Puts SME Lending Risk in Focus

The update matters beyond one bank’s share price. Judo said three loan exposures had worsened in recent weeks, prompting it to lift its expected cost of risk for the 2025-26 financial year to between $116 million and $122 million. It also expects about 3% of its loan book to be either 90 days past due or impaired by 30 June. Full-year pre-tax profit guidance was reduced from $180 million-$190 million to $163 million-$169 million.

For business owners, the key message is not that credit has disappeared. Rather, lenders are likely to be more alert to sector risk, cash flow resilience and the quality of supporting financial information. In a higher-rate environment, even otherwise viable businesses can look riskier if margins are being squeezed by wages, rent, fuel, stock costs or slower customer payments.

This is a useful extension of the recent RBA rate-hold story. A pause in the cash rate does not automatically translate into easier approvals. Banks and non-bank lenders still assess whether a borrower can service debt under stressed assumptions, and they may price or structure facilities differently when arrears and impairment risks rise.

SMEs planning to refinance, purchase equipment, manage working capital or fund expansion should prepare before approaching lenders. That means updating management accounts, explaining unusual one-off costs, documenting forward orders, and being clear about how borrowed funds will generate revenue or efficiency. If trading conditions have softened, borrowers should be ready to show what has changed and how the business is responding.

It may also be worth taking time to compare business finance options rather than assuming an existing lender will offer the best structure. Facilities can vary widely, from secured term loans and asset finance to overdrafts, invoice finance and short-term working capital lines.

A specialist broker can help identify which lenders are active in a particular sector and what information will strengthen an application. In the current market, preparation and choice may matter as much as the headline rate.