Reserve Bank Signals Potential Interest Rate Cut Amid Rising Unemployment
Reserve Bank Signals Potential Interest Rate Cut Amid Rising Unemployment
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As Australia grapples with a surprise leap in unemployment figures, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is hinting at a possible interest rate reduction.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, a four-year high that caught many economists off guard.
This development has sparked anticipation of a rate cut, prompting movements in the local share market, which recently recorded unprecedented highs.
Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock, along with Brad Jones, is set to address these economic shifts at upcoming events. Their discussions could pave the way for the RBA's potential fourth interest rate cut in 2025, slated for consideration in the coming weeks.
The Australian Council of Social Service has welcomed the prospect of a rate cut. The organisation's CEO, Cassandra Goldie, emphasised the detrimental impact high interest rates have on jobs and livelihoods. According to Goldie, reducing rates is imperative to spur job creation and mitigate further unemployment increases.
Governor Bullock, addressing the Bradfield Oration on Friday, had previously characterised the job market as relatively tight, indicating a balance between job availability and workers. Despite this, recent employment data suggest a shift necessitating urgent action.
The labour market's status contributed to the RBA's decision to maintain the current cash rate at its September meeting. However, an interest rate reduction of 0.25% is now being strongly considered based on the latest figures. Minutes from the September meeting had noted a stabilisation in various measures of labour under-utilisation.
According to Besa Deda, Chief Economist at William Buck, the RBA's current stance on monetary policy is indicative of future easing. Deda anticipates two additional rate cuts by mid-next year, with the first potentially occurring in November.
Meanwhile, global financial landscapes continue to evolve, as investors closely monitor international developments, including recent comments by former U.S. President Donald Trump on trade tariffs with China. Despite these fluctuations, local markets remain focused on domestic economic factors.
Australian share markets saw a slight dip on Friday, with the S&P/ASX200 closing at 8,995.3, experiencing a decline of 0.81%. These trends highlight the nuanced interplay between domestic economic indicators and global market dynamics.
Published:Monday, 20th Oct 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
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