The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
Austal Limited, a prominent shipbuilder, has secured a $100 million loan from Export Finance Australia (EFA) to enhance its shipyard operations in Mobile, Alabama. This funding aims to bolster the construction of vessels for the U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard. - read more
Fuso has recently launched its latest Shogun range in Australia, marking a significant advancement in the heavy-duty truck segment. This new lineup introduces the most powerful Japanese heavy-duty truck available in the Australian market, setting a new benchmark for performance and reliability. - read more
The Australian Livestock and Rural Transporters Association (ALRTA) has expressed concerns that the recent reduction in fuel excise offers no substantial net benefit to heavy vehicle operators. While the government's decision to cut the fuel excise by an additional 5.7 cents per litre, totaling a 32 cents per litre reduction, is acknowledged as a constructive step, the ALRTA emphasizes that this measure merely prevents conditions from worsening rather than providing tangible relief. - read more
When you're on the journey to owning your dream home, securing the right home loan is as critical as choosing the perfect location. The benefits of using online home loan calculators can't be overstated, as they wield the power to illuminate the murky depths of mortgage rates, terms, and payments with surprising precision. - read more
Welcome, Australian entrepreneurs and business owners! Whether you're just setting down the foundation of a startup or steering a well-established enterprise, access to capital remains a critical ingredient for business growth and survival. In the bustling economy of Australia, a well-structured business loan can be the catalyst that propels your business forward, aiding in expansion, the acquisition of new equipment, or simply ensuring smooth operational cash flow during lean periods. - read more
In the dynamic world of Australian finance, securing a loan can be a pivotal move for individuals seeking to achieve their financial goals. Whether it's for purchasing a dream home, expanding a business, or simply consolidating debt, the importance of smart loan comparison cannot be overstated. With an array of lending products available, borrowers are often faced with a bewildering choice. That's why equipping yourself with powerful loan comparison strategies is not just important, it's essential. - read more
Knowledgebase
Yield: The income return on an investment, such as the interest or dividends received from holding a particular security.
