The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
National Australia Bank (NAB) has recently unveiled a suite of caravan loan options designed to cater to the diverse needs of Australian adventurers. With personalised interest rates starting from 7.00% per annum, NAB aims to make caravan ownership more accessible and affordable. - read more
RAC WA has introduced a range of caravan loan options tailored specifically for Western Australian residents. With fixed interest rates starting at 7.45% per annum and comparison rates from 8.16% per annum, RAC WA aims to make caravan ownership more attainable for its members. - read more
ANZ has expanded its personal loan offerings to include financing options for caravan purchases, providing tailored solutions for Australians eager to explore the open road. With interest rates customised based on individual credit scores, ANZ aims to offer competitive rates that reflect each borrower's financial profile. - read more
A credit rating is essentially a numerical representation of your financial trustworthiness. It's like a report card for your creditworthiness, where higher scores indicate better financial habits. Lenders and financial institutions scrutinize this score when you apply for credit, serving as a primary factor in approving or denying loan applications. - read more
Debt consolidation is a strategy often utilized by individuals seeking to take control of their financial health. At its core, debt consolidation involves combining multiple debts into a single, more manageable loan, typically with more favorable terms such as a lower interest rate or a longer repayment period. - read more
In today’s economy, a good credit score is more than just a number—it's a pivotal element of financial health that can open doors to necessary funding when it's most needed. Whether it's for purchasing a new home, investing in a business, or obtaining personal loans, a robust credit score in Australia is your ticket to favorable interest rates and loan terms. - read more
Knowledgebase
Credit Utilization: The amount of credit you are using compared to the amount of credit available to you, typically expressed as a percentage.
