The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches.
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.
Judo Bank’s sharp share price fall on 25 June has put a spotlight on the pressure building in parts of Australia’s small business lending market. The ASX-listed specialist lender, known for focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, saw its shares drop heavily after it disclosed a small group of deteriorating business loans and lifted its expected cost of managing credit risk. - read more
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June decision to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent marks an important pause after three consecutive rate increases earlier in 2026. For households, sole traders and small to medium-sized business owners, the hold does not mean borrowing has suddenly become cheaper. It does, however, create a valuable moment to reassess existing debt, planned applications and overall cash flow before the next policy move. - read more
Australia, with its expansive coastline and spectacular waterways, naturally cultivates a rich culture of marine enthusiasts. Imagine the salty breeze on your face as you slice through waves, the call of seabirds overhead, and the freedom to explore hidden coves and beaches – this is the quintessential Australian boating lifestyle. - read more
Welcome to the world of car ownership! If you're a first-time borrower in Australia, you're likely to feel a mix of excitement and apprehension. Acquiring a car loan is a significant financial responsibility, and navigating through the options can be daunting. This introductory guide is designed to set you on the right path to making a well-informed decision. - read more
Welcome, Australian entrepreneurs and business owners! Whether you're just setting down the foundation of a startup or steering a well-established enterprise, access to capital remains a critical ingredient for business growth and survival. In the bustling economy of Australia, a well-structured business loan can be the catalyst that propels your business forward, aiding in expansion, the acquisition of new equipment, or simply ensuring smooth operational cash flow during lean periods. - read more
Knowledgebase
Credit Utilization: The amount of credit you are using compared to the amount of credit available to you, typically expressed as a percentage.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.