Why Central Banks May Not Be Able to Salvage the Global Banking Industry
Why Central Banks May Not Be Able to Salvage the Global Banking Industry
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The global banking industry has been hit by a double whammy: the US banking crisis and the European banking crisis.
A recent development in the US market saw First Republic Bank plan to sell part of its equity as a means of raising funds.
This grand plan followed an agreement involving 11 Wall Street banks to inject roughly $US30 billion of liquidity or cash into the bank after fears arose of a bank run where depositors would withdraw their funds en-masse.
The crisis is not just limited across the pond. Switzerland's second-largest bank has become a takeover target, with U.S. investment giant, UBS, reportedly in talks to purchase or acquire the bank.
According to Odeon Capital Group's Dick Bove, analysts believe the worldwide banking system is facing a credibility crisis. This loss of trust has resulted in depositors losing confidence in smaller banks, which has put those with debts in a vulnerable position, and therefore more prone to bank runs. Troubling news emerged when US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen revealed during a congressional hearing that US community bank customers with over $US250,000 in deposits were not necessarily protected. This sparked fears among the depositors, who shifted their savings to the major US banks, thereby raising doubts over the viability of thousands of US regional banks.
Bove warns that there are $US19 trillion worth of deposits in the US, which is practically impossible for regulators to backstop, making the coming days an uncertain period for the international banking community. The crisis has echoed events of the Global Financial Crisis, where international financial institutions began to doubt if their counterparties would make good on their borrowing. In other words, many bankers were worried about lending to one another for fear of not getting their money back.
Bond trader Angus Coote states that with the exceptional rise in interest rates, something was bound to break, and now that it has, it could cause a ripple effect for a while. Return of capital is becoming more important than return on capital, which has left many banks in a mismanaged position. With the question of whether central banks could contain the damage, it seems obvious that we are looking at the end of a business cycle, as most inefficient companies will be bought by more efficient ones.
Professional investor Danielle Ecuyer says that the coming weeks will be critical for central banks, particularly in the US, Switzerland, and Europe, to restore confidence in the bank system. But is restoring confidence achievable? Central banks might not be able to salvage the global banking industry.
It is evident that central banks have revealed shortcomings in handling the obstacles caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in March 2020, US banks' excess reserves surpassed $3 trillion, creating a new record. However, its debt levels and its reliance on short-term wholesale funding have not been resolved.
One aspect to consider is the presence of FinTech companies that are gaining a foothold. These businesses can offer online banking services with no fees compared to traditional banks. FinTech can provide quick, transparent, and a more reachable option for those who have been left underserved by banks in the past.
To sum it up, the global banking industry is facing a crisis. Central banks might not be able to manage the damage caused, and the coming days might be uncertain for the banking sector. If the confidence of the banking system is not restored soon, there may be a surge of capital injections, mergers and consolidations between big banks to keep the industry afloat, creating an oligopoly situation. Moreover, the innate problems of traditional banking, like a reliance on short-term or government-driven policies, will only lead to more vulnerabilities, which the FinTech and other innovative industries might better exploit.
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Knowledgebase
Discount Rate: The interest rate used to determine the present value of future cash flows, often used in discounted cash flow analysis.
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